HUMAN CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING IS NEAR CERTAINTY, UN REPORTS

From: UNNews <UNNews@un.org>
Date: 30 Jan 2014 16:00:01 -0500
Subject: HUMAN CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING IS NEAR CERTAINTY, UN REPORTS
To: news11@ny-mail-p-lb-028.ptc.un.org

HUMAN CAUSE OF GLOBAL WARMING IS NEAR CERTAINTY, UN REPORTSNew York,
Jan 30 2014 4:00PMClimate warming is unequivocal, human influence has
been the dominant cause since the mid-20th century, and atmospheric
concentrations of greenhouse gasses, already at levels not seen in at
least 800,000 years, will persist for many centuries, the final
version of the latest United Nations report on climate change warned
today.

"Continued emissions of greenhouse gases will cause further warming
and changes in all components of the climate system," according to the
<"http://ipcc.ch/report/ar5/wg1/">report, which finalizes a summary of
findings by the UN-backed Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
(<"http://ipcc.ch/index.htm">IPCC) issued in September, outlining a
litany of threats from the melting of the Greenland and Antarctic ice
sheets to rising oceans to extreme weather events such as cyclones and
heat waves.

"Limiting climate change will require substantial and sustained
reductions of greenhouse gas emissions," it
<"http://ipcc.ch/pdf/press/press_release_wg1_full_report.pdf">stresses,
using the term "extremely likely" for human causality since the
mid-20th century, meaning there is a 95 to 100 per cent probability
that humankind, and not naturally occurring phenomena, are to blame, a
5 percent increase from the 90 to 100 per cent "very likely"
probability of if the IPCC's last report in 2007.

Even if emissions of global warming carbon dioxide (CO₂)
emissions are stopped, most aspects of climate change will persist for
many centuries. "This represents a substantial multi-century climate
change commitment created by past, present and future emissions of
CO₂," the report warns.

"Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and
the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow
and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate
extremes," it says.

"This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4 (the last IPCC
report). It is extremely likely that human influence has been the
dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century."

The report says it is extremely likely that more than half the
observed increase in global average surface temperature from 1951 to
2010 was caused by the increase in greenhouse gas caused by humans and
other human causes. Some of the major warming emissions caused by
humankind since the birth of the industrial era 250 years ago -
CO₂, methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) - have all
increased since 1750 due to human activity.

"Human influence has been detected in warming of the atmosphere and
the ocean, in changes in the global water cycle, in reductions in snow
and ice, in global mean sea level rise, and in changes in some climate
extremes. This evidence for human influence has grown since AR4. It is
extremely likely that human influence has been the dominant cause of
the observed warming since the mid-20th century," the report stresses.

"Concentrations of CO₂, CH4, and N2O now substantially
exceed the highest concentrations recorded in ice cores during the
past 800,000 years. The mean rates of increase in atmospheric
concentrations over the past century are, with very high confidence,
unprecedented in the last 22,000 years."

It notes that each of the last three decades has been successively
warmer at the Earth's surface than any preceding decade since 1850,
changes in many extreme weather and climate events have been observed
since about 1950, the frequency of heat waves has likely increased in
large parts of Europe, Asia and Australia.

There are also likely more land regions where the number of heavy
precipitation events has increased than where it has decreased and the
frequency or intensity of heavy precipitation has likely increased in
North America and Europe. Likely means a 66 to 100 per cent
probability.

On the cryosphere (cold regions) the report notes that annual mean
Arctic sea ice decreased over the period 1979 to 2012 at a rate very
likely in the range 3.5 to 4.1 per cent per decade and in the range
9.4 to 13.6 per cent per decade the summer sea ice minimum (perennial
sea ice).

There is very high confidence that the extent of Northern Hemisphere
snow cover has decreased since the mid-20th century, decreasing by an
average 1.6 per cent per decade for March and April, and 11.7 per cent
per decade for June, over the 1967 to 2012 period.

There is also high confidence that permafrost temperatures have
increased in most regions since the early 1980s. Observed warming was
up to 3° Celsius in parts of Northern Alaska and up to 2°C in parts of
the Russian European North, where a considerable reduction in
permafrost thickness and areal extent has been observed over the
period 1975 to 2005.

As for the sea level, the rise since the mid-19th century has been
larger than the mean rate during the previous two millennia, its
global mean level rising 0.19 metres over the period 1901 to 2010.

Global surface temperature change for the end of the 21st century is
likely to exceed 1.5°C relative to 1850 to 1900 for most scenarios
studied by IPCC, and likely or "more likely than not" to exceed 2°C
for some of them. Warming will continue beyond 2100 under all
scenarios except one, will continue to show inter-annual-to-decadal
variability and will not be regionally uniform.

It is very likely that Arctic sea ice cover will continue to shrink
and thin and that Northern Hemisphere spring snow cover will decrease
during the 21st century as global mean surface temperature rises.
Global glacier volume will further decrease, the report adds.

Global mean sea level, meanwhile, will continue to rise during the
21st century, very likely exceeding the rate observed during 1971 to
2010 due to increased ocean warming and increased loss of mass from
glaciers and ice sheets.Jan 30 2014 4:00PM
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