AG2 TROPICAL REPORT JANUARY 4 2013' 172744PT

Tropical Storm 01W Warning #06
Jan 05, 2013
Tropical Cyclon
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp0113.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//RMKS/1. TROPICAL STORM 01W WARNING NR
006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER
ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 8.3N 113.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 270 DEGREES AT 12 KTS POSITION ACCURATE
TO WITHIN030 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT: 8.3N 113.0E
--- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 050600Z --- 8.0N 110.8E MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID
AT: 051800Z --- 7.8N 108.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055
KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS -
065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 260
DEG/ 08 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 060600Z --- 7.5N 107.0E MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT
Tropical Cyclone 07S Warning #09
Jan 05, 2013
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0713.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 009//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
WARNING NR 009 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER
OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 041800Z --- NEAR 27.7S 55.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 135 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION
ACCURATE TO WITHIN020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY
SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT,
GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 27.7S 55.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID
AT: 050600Z --- 31.4S 59.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055
KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 33 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 36.7S 64.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL
---REMARKS:042100Z POSITION NEAR 28.6S 56.9E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
07S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 385 NM SOUTH OF LA REUNION, HAS TRACKED
SOUTHEASTWARD AT 15KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A STEADY WEAKENING TREND FOR THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A DVORAK
ESTIMATE FROM PGTW INDICATED 55 KNOTS. AN APPROACHING DEEP LAYERED
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS LOCATED TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LLCC AND HAS
STARTED TO IMPACT THEWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), ASSOCIATED WITH
APPROACHING TROUGH, WILL START TO DECOUPLE THE UPPER LEVEL FROM THE
LLCC AND LEAD TO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. POOR SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES, INCREASING VWS AND FURTHER IMPACT FROM THE MID-LATITUDE
TROUGH WILL CAUSE THE SYSTEM TO FINISH THE TRANSITION WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, LEADING
TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 041800Z IS 30 FEET.

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