AG2 TROPICAL REPORT FROM NAS BLYND JANUARY 13 2013'

Tropical Cyclone 09S (Nine) Warning #02
Jan 13, 2013
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0913.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S (NINE) WARNING NR 002//RMKS/1. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 09S (NINE)WARNING NR 002 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN
SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII
VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 130600Z --- NEAR
11.6S 80.7E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 115 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED
BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035
KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT:
11.6S 80.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 11.9S
80.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 02 KTS --- 24
HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 12.2S 80.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT,
GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT
WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR
POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.6S
79.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS
--- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.1S 79.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID
AT: 160600Z --- 13.9S 77.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075
KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS -
055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 250
DEG/ 05 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 14.6S 75.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250
DEG/ 04 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 180600Z --- 15.2S 74.2E MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY ---REMARKS:130900Z POSITION NEAR 11.7S 80.7E.TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 09S, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 545 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA, HAS TRACKED EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE LLCC.
THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE MSI
IMAGERY. TC 09S IS LOCATED WITHIN A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH FAIR
OUTFLOW AND HAS SHOWN LITTLE IMPROVEMENT IN ORGANIZATION OVER THE PAST
12 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS ASSESSED AT 35 KNOTS BASED ON
THE HIGHER END OF DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 35 KNOTS. TC 09S
IS LOCATED WITHIN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND HAS REMAINED
QUASI-STATIONARY WITH AN APPARENT CLOCKWISE LOOP OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. HOWEVER, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TURNSOUTHWESTWARD BY TAU 12
ANDSLOWLY TRACK ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF A BUILDING SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR). AFTER TAU 36, TC 09S SHOULD ACCELERATE SLIGHTLY AND TURN
MORE WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THESTR.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH MAJOR DIFFERENCES IN
TRACK SPEED. THE MODELS SHOW A SIMILAR SYNOPTIC PATTERN BUT DIFFER ON
HOW QUICKLY THE SYSTEM WILL TRACKWESTWARD. OVERALL, THE GUIDANCE IS
COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT,HOWEVER, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE DISPARITY IN TRACK SPEEDS AND THE
RECENT ERRATIC MOTION. TC 09S IS EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY THROUGH
TAU 24 BUT SHOULD THEN INTENSIFY TO A PEAK INTENSITY OF 65 KNOTS BY
TAU 96. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 130600Z IS 12 FEET.
Tropical Cyclone 08S Warning #23
Jan 13, 2013
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0813.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 023//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
WARNING NR 023 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER
OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 23.2S
110.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION
ACCURATE TO WITHIN030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040
NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS -
160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 23.2S 110.0E
--- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 25.8S 109.4E MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 150 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 185 DEG/ 13 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID
AT: 141200Z --- 28.3S 109.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070
KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS -
145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 145 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 165
DEG/ 13 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 30.9S 110.0E MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 17
KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 33.7S
112.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL ---REMARKS:131500Z POSITION NEAR
23.8S 109.9E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM WITH DEEP
CONVECTION DECREASING IN AREAL EXTENT AND CLOUD TOPS WARMING
SIGNIFICANTLY. A 131229Z SSMISIMAGE SHOWS THAT THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
CONFINED TO THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 75 KNOTS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 08S IS FORECAST TO TRACK
SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE THROUGH TAU 12. AFTER TAU 12,THE SYSTEM WILL RECURVE
SOUTHEASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO A DEEP MIDLATITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
DYNAMIC GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD,
THERFORE, THERE IS HIGHCONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. TC 08S
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL SST AND WILL ALSO
BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) BY TAU 36 AND IS EXPECTED TO
COMPLETE ETT BY TAU 48. THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE SYSTEM WILL
WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BEFORE COMPLETING ETT DUE TO THE COLD SST AND
STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUMSIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z
IS 29 FEET.

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