AG2 TROPICAL WEATHER REPORT DECEMBER 11 2012'

Tropical Cyclone 03S (Claudia) Warning #12
Dec 12, 2012
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0313.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 012//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S
WARNING NR 012 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER
OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 120000Z --- NEAR 21.8S 72.7E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 09 KTS POSITION
ACCURATE TO WITHIN060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY
SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT,
GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT
WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT:
21.8S 72.7E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 24.0S
73.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS -
090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 160
DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 26.7S 74.2E MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL ---REMARKS:120300Z POSITION NEAR 22.4S
72.8E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S (CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 870 NM
SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) REVEALS TC
03S HAS BECOME PARTIALLY EXPOSED WITH THE BULK OF THE CONVECTION NOW
CONTAINED TO THE SOUTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. AN 112227Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS TC 03S STARTING TO BECOME EXTRA TROPICAL AS A WEAK WARM
FRONT IS BEGINNING TO FORM WITH A DELTA RAIN REGION OBSERVED IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.THE INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 50 KNOTS BASED ON THE AVERAGE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 55 TO 45 KNOTS AND IS SUPPORTED BY RECENT SCATTEROMETER
DATA. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 03S IS UNDER A DIFFLUENT
REGION WITH ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW BUT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS
INCREASED TO 20 TO 30 KNOTS. TC 03S IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ON THE
WESTERN EDGE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. TC 03S WILLCONTINUE
MOVING SOUTH FOR THE FORECAST PERIOD, CONTINUALLY WEAKENING AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR INCREASES AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AND
BEGINEXTRA TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT) WITHIN THE NEXT 12 HOURS. ETT
WILL BE COMPLETE BY TAU 24. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN TIGHT
AGREEMENT AND DUE TO THIS THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH AS MODELS REMAIN IN CLOSE
AGREEMENT. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 120000Z IS 25 FEET.
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Tropical Cyclone 04P (Four) Warning #01
Dec 12, 2012
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0413.gif
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P (FOUR) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL
CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION:
111800Z --- NEAR 14.3S 175.6W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 080 DEGREES
AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN060 NM POSITION BASED ON
CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 14.3S 175.6W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT:
120600Z --- 13.8S 173.9W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 065 DEG/ 07
KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 121800Z --- 13.2S 172.5W MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 080 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT:
130600Z --- 13.0S 171.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 010 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 195 DEG/ 02
KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 13.4S
171.5W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 015 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 015 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
015 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

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