AG2 TROPICAL REPORT from NAS BLYND March 26 2014

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
225 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6S 39.3E TO 13.9S 45.8E
WITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 262130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.7S 39.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 10.9S 40.7E IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 10.7S 39.4E, APPROXIMATELY 600 NM NORTHWEST OF
ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. THE LLCC IS OVER LAND
STRADDLING THE TANZANIA-MOZAMBIQUE BORDER AND APPEARS TO BE SLOWLY
APPROACHING THE COAST INTO THE MOZAMBIQUE CHANNEL. UPPER-LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
(5 TO 10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND ENHANCED EASTWARD AND
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNELS. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES IN THE CHANNEL ARE CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT.
THE DYNAMIC MODELS INDICATE AN EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TO SOUTHEASTWARD
TRACK WITH RAPID DEVELOPMENT AFTER TAU 24. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. IN VIEW OF THE CYCLONES IMMINENT EXIT
INTO WARM WATER AND GIVEN THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS,
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
S$

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