AG2 TROPICAL REPORT from NAS BLYND January 29 2014

FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.2N 142.7E TO 8.3N 133.8E WITHIN
THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF
NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA
ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 290500Z
INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 141.4E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 13 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.0N
141.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.0N 141.4E, APPROXIMATELY 195 NM EAST
OF YAP ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A
PARTIALLY-EXPOSED, CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE
WRAPPING INTO THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM. A 282359Z
AMSU-B IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE BULK OF THE DEEP CONVECTION IS
DISPLACED OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE DUE TO MODERATE (15 TO 20
KNOTS) SOUTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY IMAGERY
CONTINUES TO INDICATE A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 15 TO 20 KNOT
NORTHEASTERLY SURGE WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND
WESTERN QUADRANT. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM YAP INDICATE AN SLP
VALUE OF ABOUT 1004 MB WITH A 24-HOUR SLP DECREASE OF 2.5 MB. UPPER-
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED EQUATORWARD OF THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND IS UNDER STRONG DIFFLUENT FLOW, WHICH IS
FUELING THE PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. DYNAMIC MODELS
INDICATE THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS
WESTWARD TOWARD YAP AND KOROR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
291200Z --- NEAR 16.9S 150.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 06 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE, RADAR AND SYNOPTIC DATA
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 16.9S 150.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 17.6S 149.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
301200Z --- 18.4S 148.1E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 215 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
310000Z --- 19.5S 147.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
311200Z --- 20.7S 145.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
S$

--
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