GLOBAL ECONOMY IMPROVING BUT GREATER POLICY COORDINATION NEEDED, UN REPORTS

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From: UNNews <UNNews@un.org>
Date: 18 Dec 2013 15:00:01 -0500
Subject: GLOBAL ECONOMY IMPROVING BUT GREATER POLICY COORDINATION
NEEDED, UN REPORTS
To: news11@ny-mail-p-lb-028.ptc.un.org

GLOBAL ECONOMY IMPROVING BUT GREATER POLICY COORDINATION NEEDED, UN
REPORTSNew York, Dec 18 2013 3:00PMThe global economy is expected to
continue to grow over the next two years, the United Nations today
reported, but stronger international policy coordination is needed to
steady the remaining fragility in the banking system and geopolitics
which could hamper financial stability.

Growth is expected to expand 3.0 per cent in 2014 and 3.3 percent in
2015, compared with estimated growth of 2.1 per cent for 2013,
according to the 'World Economic Situation and Prospects 2014' (WESP)
report <"http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_current/2014Chap1_en.pdf">preview
launched today.

"The world economy experienced subdued growth for a second year in
2013, but some improvements in the last quarter have led to the UN's
more positive forecast," said the UN Department of Economic and Social
Affairs and the UN Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD). They
produced the report in cooperation with the Organization's five
regional commissions.

The UN made its predications on factors that include an end to the
euro's protracted recession and somewhat stronger growth in the United
States, according to the
<"http://www.un.org/en/development/desa/policy/wesp/wesp_current/2014wesp_pr_en.pdf">news
release.

In the US, fiscal tightening and a series of political gridlocks over
budgetary issues impacted growth, but the trajectory is expected to
increase 2.5 per cent in 2014.

Meanwhile, Western Europe remains weak despite emerging from
recession. Fiscal austerity and unemployment are expected to remain
"elevated," according to the report, with predicted growth of 1.5 per
cent in 2014 – similarly to the forecasted growth for that year in
Japan.

Large emerging economies, including China and India, managed to
backstop deceleration despite seeing some lowest growth figures in two
decades, noted the report, which will be made available in full on 20
January.

"Our forecast is made in the context of many uncertainties and risks
coming from possible policy missteps as well as non-economic factors
that could stymie growth," said Shamshad Akhtar, UN Assistant
Secretary-General for Economic Development.

The risks include a "possible bumpy exit" from the US Federal
Reserve's quantitative easing (QE) stimulus – such as bond-buying
programme – started in 2008 which is under discussion by the Fed's
central policy-making body this week in Washington DC.

"A premature exit of the QE could trigger financial turbulence and
derail economic recovery,"
Pingfan Hong, Chief of Global Economic Monitoring Unit at DESA told
journalists in New York.

A pull-out could lead to a surge in long-term interest rates in
developed and developing countries. It could also lead to a sell-off
in global equity markets, a sharp decline of capital inflows to
emerging economies and a spike in the risk premium for external
financing in emerging economies.

On the other hand, keeping the QE for too long could make a future
exit even more difficult.

Central banks are just "waiting on a tiger's back difficult to manage
a safe dismount," said Mr. Hong, who is the UN team leader for the
report.

Given the complexity and variety of such challenges, the report calls
for stronger international policy cooperation and coordination.

"Policy makers in developing countries and economies in transition
face a series of both international and domestic challenges. This will
require tough tradeoffs, and possible institutional and structural
reforms on the positive side," Ms. Akhtar told journalists.

She stressed that new policies should focus on a balance between an
improved recovery, particularly job growth, and a mitigation of
spillover effects from the tapering of the quantitative easing in
major developed countries.

Improved policies are also needed to advance the reforms of the
international financial system. Progress in financial regulatory
reform has been slow, encountering growing resistance from the
financial industry.

The report adds that more forceful efforts are needed to address the
issues of international tax avoidance and evasion, particularly
through tax havens.Dec 18 2013 3:00PM
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