AG2 TROPICAL REPORT SEPTEMBER 2 2013

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021800Z --- NEAR 28.2N 127.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 055 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 035 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF
SATELLITE AND RADAR
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 28.2N 127.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030600Z --- 29.2N 128.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031800Z --- 29.8N 129.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040600Z --- 30.4N 129.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
041800Z --- 31.0N 129.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
051800Z --- 32.7N 130.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 030 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
061800Z --- 35.5N 132.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 055 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
071800Z --- 37.9N 137.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
EXTRATROPICAL

01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN EASTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
021200Z --- NEAR 22.8N 116.3W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 02 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 015 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
REPEAT POSIT: 22.8N 116.3W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 23.2N 116.6W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
031200Z --- 23.5N 116.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 01 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
040000Z --- 23.7N 116.8W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
1. AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS THE LESSER
ANTILLES AND INTO THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE FAVORABLE...THE PROXIMITY OF DRY AIR IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS OF
THE ATMOSPHERE HAS BEEN INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME MORE
CONDUCIVE WHILE THE SYSTEM MOVES MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND
10 MPH NEAR PUERTO RICO AND HISPANIOLA IN THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THIS
SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMS...BRIEF
PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

2. A TROPICAL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND
BELIZE IS MOVING WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO MOVE INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE LATE TUESDAY...WHERE SOME
DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AROUND MIDWEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

3. A TROPICAL WAVE...ACCOMPANIED BY A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM...HAS MOVED
OFF OF THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA ABOUT 650 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THIS DISTURBANCE IS BEGINNING TO SHOW SOME SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION...AND ENVIRONMETAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE
THE LOW MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
S$
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