EXTREMELY UNUSUAL LATE-SEASON SNOWFALL POSSIBLE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING THAT A VERY LATE-SEASON SURGE OF COLD AIR
WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA ON FRIDAY. THE COLD AIR WILL INTERACT
WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE GULF OF ALASKA CAUSING RAIN
TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW FRIDAY AFTERNOON OR EVENING FROM THE WESTERN
KENAI PENINSULA TO ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU.
THERE ARE QUITE A FEW UNCERTAINTIES WITH THIS STORM... INCLUDING THE
ARRIVALTIME OF THE COLD AIR AND HOW INTENSE THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE.
THE INTENSITY OF SNOWFALL WILL BE THE KEY TO WHETHER SNOW IS ABLE TO
STICK TO THE GROUND AND ACCUMULATE.
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE HIGHEST LIKELIHOOD OF ACCUMULATING
SNOW WILL BE FRIDAY EVENING THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. IT IS TOO
SOON TO FORECAST SNOWFALL AMOUNTS... BUT WE CAN SAY THAT THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS OF ANCHORAGE AND THE MAT-SU (INCLUDING THE ANCHORAGE
HILLSIDE) HAVE THE HIGHEST POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING SNOW. GRASSY
AREAS WILL BE THE FIRST TO SEE SNOW BEGIN TO ACCUMULATE... WITH PAVED
SURFACES TAKING THE LONGEST TO COOL DOWN ENOUGH FOR SNOW TO STICK.
THERE ARE ONLY TWO INSTANCES IN THE RECORD BOOKS WHERE MEASURABLE
SNOWFALL WAS RECORDED IN ANCHORAGE (AT THEOFFICIAL CLIMATE STATION)
DURING THE 2ND HALF OF MAY. THESE OCCURRED ON MAY 17 1989 AND MAY 22
1964. BOTH OFTHESE STORMS DEPOSITED 0.2 INCHES OF SNOWFALL. THE
UPCOMING STORM HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF PRODUCING THE LARGEST SNOWFALL IN
THE 2ND HALF OF MAY SINCE RECORDS BEGAN IN 1917.
ADDITIONALLY... IF ANY MEASURABLE SNOWFALL AT ALL OCCURS THIS WEEKEND
IT WOULD MAKE THE 2012-2013 SNOW SEASON THE LONGEST SINCE RECORDS
BEGAN. THE SNOW SEASON IS DEFINED AS THE NUMBER OF DAYS BETWEEN THE
FIRST AND LAST MEASURABLE SNOWFALLS OF THE SEASON. THE CURRENT RECORD
IS HELD BY THE 1981-1982 SNOW SEASON WHERE230 DAYS ELAPSED BETWEEN THE
FIRST AND LAST SNOWFALL.
AS MENTIONED EARLIER THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH
THE DETAILS OF THE APPROACHING STORM. OUTDOOR ENTHUSIASTS SHOULD
PREPARE FOR THE LATE SEASON COLD AND SNOW BEFORE HEADINGOUT. PLEASE
STAY TUNED TO THE LATEST NATIONAL WEATHER FORECASTS FOR THE MOST
UP-TO-DATE INFORMATION ABOUT THIS UNUSUAL LATE SEASON EVENT.
$$S$

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