UN REPORTS SUBDUED ASIA-PACIFIC GROWTH IN 2013 AS REGION FACES DEVELOPED WORLD UNCERTAINTY

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From: UNNews <UNNews@un.org>
Date: 18 Apr 2013 15:00:00 -0400
Subject: UN REPORTS SUBDUED ASIA-PACIFIC GROWTH IN 2013 AS REGION
FACES DEVELOPED WORLD UNCERTAINTY
To: news11@ny-mail-p-lb-028.ptc.un.org

UN REPORTS SUBDUED ASIA-PACIFIC GROWTH IN 2013 AS REGION FACES
DEVELOPED WORLD UNCERTAINTY
New York, Apr 18 2013 3:00PM
Growth in Asia-Pacific remains subdued due to the impact of persistent
weaknesses and uncertainties in the developed economies, the United
Nations reported today, urging Governments to implement macroeconomic
policies that focus more on inclusivity and sustainable development.

The report, the Economic and Social Survey of Asia and the Pacific
2013: Forward-looking macroeconomic policies for inclusive and
sustainable development, argues that macroeconomic policies can play a
vital role in reorienting the region towards a more inclusive and
sustainable growth path – a high priority of its post-2015 development
agenda.

The Survey cautioned, however, that "much lower growth compared to
recent years could become a new normal for many regional economies if
present economic trends were to continue," and this could cause an
estimated economic output loss of about $1.3 trillion by the end of
2017.

According to the report, the flagship publication of the UN Economic
and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), the growth
rate of the region's developing economies is projected to rise to 6
per cent in 2013 from 5.6 per cent last year, but compared to 7 per
cent in 2011.

"The global economic conditions remain challenging for the region.
Since the beginning of 2013, we have witnessed some measurable
improvement in global financial markets, however we have not seen
robust improvement in the real economy," Pingfan Hong, Chief of the
Global Economic Monitoring Unit at the UN Department of Economic and
Social Affairs (DESA), told journalists in New York.

The survey estimated that since the onset of the global financial
crises in 2008, GDP for the region had lost about 3 per cent if
compared with the trend growth of the region before the crises, a loss
of roughly $870 billion in output.

"The 2013 Survey reminds us that this is no time for complacency, as
the need for a more inclusive and sustainable pattern of economic and
social development continues to be critical," UN
Under-Secretary-General and Executive Secretary of ESCAP, Noeleen
Heyzer, said in her preface to the Survey.

China is estimated to record a moderate increase in growth from 7.8
per cent in 2012 to 8 per cent this year, while India is projected to
recover somewhat from last year's low of 5 per cent to 6.4 per cent in
2013.

According to other figures in the Survey, oil and gas exporting North
and Central Asia will continue to benefit from high global energy
prices, maintaining steady growth.
In South and South-West Asia, the economies of Afghanistan,
Bangladesh, Bhutan and Sri Lanka are projected to grow 6 per cent or
more in 2013.

The export-led economies in East and North-East Asia as well as
South-East Asia are expected to gain from "improved, although still
tepid, global trade."

In Indonesia, ESCAP noted that domestic demand will drive the economy
to a growth rate of 6.6 per cent. Strong private consumption will
support growth in the Philippines at 6.2 per cent and 5.3 per cent in
Thailand, while Viet Nam's economy is expected to pick up in the
second half of 2013 to 5.5 per cent.

Meanwhile, growth is expected to decelerate in Pacific island
developing economies in 2013 due to a sharp, energy sector-led
slowdown in Papua New Guinea, the largest Pacific island economy.

The Survey also argues that long-term structural issues, such as
rising inequality, energy and infrastructure shortages are compounding
the regional slowdown and the "structural solution to invigorating the
domestic drivers of growth…will lie in making the development process
more inclusive and sustainable".

According to figures cited, it will cause many of the countries
surveyed 5 to 8 per cent of GDP to finance the social protection and
sustainable development policies supported, such as creating job
guarantee programmes and universal pension schemes.

Among measures to support inclusive development, the Survey argues for
a minimum wage policy. It estimates that the recent minimum wage hikes
in Thailand could increase job growth by up to 0.6 per cent and real
GDP growth by 0.7 per cent by 2015.

While in China, efforts to reduce reliance on exports and boost
domestic consumption-driven demand by promoting inclusive and
sustainable growth will spur domestic growth and benefit intraregional
trade. ESCAP estimates the new policies would generate an additional
$13 billion worth of exports by other Asia-Pacific countries to China
during 2013-2015 and cause regional export growth to pick up by up to
0.5 percentage points above the level it would otherwise have been.

"The good news is that Asia and the Pacific has already started to
rethink and reinvent itself. These efforts should be supported,
enhanced and propagated throughout all countries in the region," Ms.
Heyzer said.
Apr 18 2013 3:00PM
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