WIND AND RAIN WILL MOVE INTOSOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS WEEKEND

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE AK
400 PM AKST THU JAN 10 2013
AKZ101-111-121-125-131-135-145-111400-
...WIND AND RAIN WILL MOVE INTOSOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS WEEKEND...
A SHIFT IN THE WEATHER PATTERNWILL BRING A STRONG WEATHER FRONT INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL ALASKA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO THE COOK
INLET AND SUSITNA VALLEY REGION DURING THE MORNING ON SATURDAY AND
PUSH EASTWARD OVER PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND ANDTHE COPPER RIVER BASIN BY
SATURDAY EVENING. THIS FRONT HAS A TROPICAL CONNECTION WITH IT AND
THEREFORE WILL BRING IN UNSEASONABLY WARM AIR TO THE AREA. A SECONDARY
LOW WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AND IMPACT SOUTH CENTRAL
ALASKA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
ON THE KENAI PENINSULA THE PRECIPITATION SHOULD BEGIN AS SNOW ON
SATURDAY BUT THEN TRANSITION INTO RAIN FROM THE SOUTH AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES.
THE ANCHORAGE AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME LIGHT SNOW ON SATURDAY
THAT WILL BEGIN TO MIX WITH FREEZING RAINLATE IN THE AFTERNOON. THE
FREEZING RAIN WILL TURN TO STRAIGHT RAIN AS TEMPERATURESWARM THROUGH
THE NIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT AND RISE ABOVEFREEZING. RAIN WILL THEN
PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT.
STRONG SOUTHEAST WINDSARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR ALONG TURNAGAIN ARM AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH THIS
SYSTEM. THE ANCHORAGE BOWL WILL LIKELY NOT SEE STRONG WINDS UNTIL THE
SECONDARY LOW MOVES THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY
MORNING. THE TIMING OFTHE WIND IS VERY DEPENDENT ON THE STRENGTH AND
TIMING OF THESECONDARY LOW ALONG THE FRONT. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IN
THESE AREAS AND THEREFORE THETIMING OF THE STRONGEST WIND AND RAIN MAY
NEED TO BE ADJUSTED AS THE STORM DEVELOPS. THE MAT-SU REGION WILL HAVE
A SIMILAR PATTERN TOTHE ANCHORAGE BOWL WITH A TRANSITION FROM SNOW TO
RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTOSUNDAY MORNING.
FOR AREAS AROUND PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND THE PRECIPITATION WILL ALSO
BEGIN AS SNOW WITH HEAVY SNOWFALL OCCURRING IN THE MOUNTAINS. AS THIS
STORM PUSHES IN WARM AIR AREAS AT SEA LEVEL WILL BEGIN TO SWITCH TO
RAIN AND THEN RAIN WILL MAKE IT INTO VALDEZ AND THE COPPER RIVER BASIN
BY SUNDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY OF A PROLONGED RAIN EVENT IN THE
PRINCE WILLIAM SOUND AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THIS SYSTEM. HOWEVER IT
IS TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN WHETHER THE FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE
NORTH GULF COAST REGION OR PUSH EASTWARD MUCH FASTER.
AS SNOW TURNS OVER TO RAIN THERE WILL LIKELY BE SIGNIFICANT WATER
OVERFLOW ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS. THIS COULD LEAD TO PONDING AND
MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS THROUGHOUT SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA.

--
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