AG2 TROPICAL REPORT JANUARY 2 2013'

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPN21
Jan 02, 2013
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp9213.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN200 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 7.8N 126.7E TO 7.9N 115.0E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 022100Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 125.8E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 23
KNOTS. 2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 7.5N
128.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.9N 125.8E, APPROXIMATELY 230 NM
EAST-NORTHEAST OF ZAMBOANGA, PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED INFRAREDSATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH IMPROVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING. A 021741Z AMSU IMAGE INDICATES
THAT THE LLCC IS LOCATED OVER MINDANAO BUT HAS MAINTAINED CURVED, DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDING OVER THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
SHOWS A MARGINAL ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE, EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OFFSET BYSTRONG DIFFLUENCE. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL RE-STRENGTHEN AS IT TRACKS BACK OVER WATER BY TAU
12. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
Tropical Cyclone 07S Warning #05
Jan 02, 2013
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0713.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S WARNING NR 005//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 07S
WARNING NR 005 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER
OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 021800Z --- NEAR 17.9S 55.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 190 DEGREES AT 13 KTS POSITION
ACCURATE TO WITHIN020 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045
NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS -
090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 17.9S 55.0E
--- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 030600Z --- 20.5S 54.4E MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 085 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 11 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID
AT: 031800Z --- 22.6S 54.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090
KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS -
030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS -
095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTXS21
Jan 02, 2013
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9713.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 170 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 7.9S 85.7E TO 11.6S 79.6EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 012030Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 84.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.2S 84.5E,
IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.9S 84.5E, APPROXIMATELY 720 NM EAST OF DIEGO
GARCIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS CONTINUED TO CONSOLIDATE OVER THE PAST
FEW HOURS AND IS BEGINNING TO MOVE UNDER THE PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC REMAINS LOCATED
EQUATORWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS, WHICH IS CREATING MODERATE
LEVELS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (10 TO 20 KNOTS). STRONGER LEVELS
OF VWS TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC ARE HELPING TO ENHANCE THE EQUATORWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SSTS) IN THE VICINITY OF
THE LLCC ARE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT (28 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS). MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB.
BASED ON THE IMPROVING LLCC STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE SSTS, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

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