Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTPS21 Corrected
Jan 19, 2013
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9113.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT CORRECTED//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF
A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN235 NM EITHER SIDE OF
A LINE FROM 12.9S 179.4E TO 11.6S 172.5WWITHIN THE NEXT 06 TO 24
HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS ATTHIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25
TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IM-AGERY AT 201930Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION
CENTER IS LOCATEDNEAR 13.2S 179.7W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EASTWARD AT
14 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
13.2S 176.8E IS NOWLOCATED NEAR 13.2S 179.7W, APPROXIMATELY 520 NM
WEST OFPAGO PAGO,AMERICAN SAMOA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWSCONVECTIVE BANDS HAVE DEEPENED AND WRAPPED TIGHTERINTO
THE LOW LEVELCIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 191220Z SCATTEROMETRY PASS
INDICATES25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS FEEDINGINTO THE LLCC FROM THE
NORTHERNPERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS JUST
SOUTH OFA RIDGE AXIS AND SOUTHEAST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN AN AREA OF
LIGHT TOMODERATE (10-20 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND GOODRADIAL
OUTFLOW.NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF
THISSYSTEM IN 24-36 HOURS. WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUMSEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1001 MB. IN VIEW OF
THEIMPROVED UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENTOF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
ISUPGRADED TO HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING
OR CANCELLED BY202000Z. 4. JUSTIFICATION FOR CORRECTION: CORRECTED
TYPOGRAPHICAL ERROR IN THE LONGITUDE FOR CURRENT POSITION IN PARAGRAPH
2.
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