AG2 TROPICAL REPORT from NAS BLYND January 15 2013'

Tropical Cyclone 09S Warning #06
Jan 15, 2013
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0913.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 006//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER
OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 150600Z --- NEAR 13.5S 78.6E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 205 DEGREES AT 04 KTS POSITION
ACCURATE TO WITHIN060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY
SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT,
GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT:
13.5S 78.6E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.9S
78.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 24
HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.3S 77.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT,
GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT
WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR
POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 161800Z --- 14.6S
75.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 09 KTS
--- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 170600Z --- 14.9S 73.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 07 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID
AT: 180600Z --- 15.0S 71.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070
KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS -
025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS -
055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260
DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 15.5S 68.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 250
DEG/ 05 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 200600Z --- 16.2S 66.7E MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY ---REMARKS:150900Z POSITION NEAR 13.6S 78.5E.TROPICAL
CYCLONE (TC) 09S (EMANG), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTHEAST OF
DIEGO GARCIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS BECOME SLIGHTLY ELONGATED
IN THE NORTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AXIS. ADDITIONALLY, THE MSI SHOWS THAT
NEARLY ALL DEEP CONVECTION HAS DISSIPATED WITH ONLY A SMALL REGION OF
FLARING CONVECTION IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN MAINTAINED AT 35 KNOTS, BASED ON THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROMPGTW AND KNES REMAINING STEADY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES TC 09S IS LOCATED NEAR THE AXIS OF A
WEAKENING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND TO THE NORTHEAST OF A DEVELOPING
MID-LATITUDE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH. SUBSIDENCE WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN
QUADRANT HAS BEEN WEAKENING THE CONVECTION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS LOW
(05 TO 10 KNOTS) AS THE LLCC IS NEAR THESTR AXIS. THE TRACK HAS SLOWED
OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS AS THE TROUGH HAS CREATED A WEAKER STEERING
ENVIRONMENT, BUT AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO
BUILD BACK IN, ALLOWING FORTHE SYSTEM TO CONTINUE TRACKING WESTWARD.
THE IMPROVING UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT WILL SLOWLY ALLOW THE SYSTEM TO
INTENSIFY THROUGH TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD, AND BASED ON THIS AGREEMENT
THERE REMAINS HIGHCONFIDENCE IN THE TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 15 FEET.

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