AG2 TROPICAL REPORT FROM NAS BLYND JANUARY 14 2013'

Tropical Cyclone 09S Warning #04
Jan 14, 2013
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0913.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S WARNING NR 004//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 09S
WARNING NR 004 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER
OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 140600Z --- NEAR 12.4S 79.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 03 KTS POSITION
ACCURATE TO WITHIN060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY
SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT,
GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT:
12.4S 79.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 12.9S
79.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 225 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 24
HRS, VALID AT: 150600Z --- 13.4S 78.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT,
GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT
WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR
POSIT: 240 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 151800Z --- 13.8S
77.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 04 KTS
--- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 160600Z --- 14.2S 77.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 06 KTS
Tropical Cyclone 08S Warning #25
Jan 14, 2013
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0813.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S WARNING NR 025//RMKS/1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 08S
WARNING NR 025 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN SOUTHIO MAX
SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER
OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 141200Z --- NEAR 28.1S
109.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 175 DEGREES AT 15 KTS POSITION
ACCURATE TO WITHIN060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY
SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT,
GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 125 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 28.1S 109.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID
AT: 150000Z --- 31.0S 110.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045
KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 145 DEG/ 18 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 34.0S 113.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL
---REMARKS:141500Z POSITION NEAR 28.8S 110.1E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC)
08S LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 430 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF LEARMONTH,
AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAKENING
SYSTEM INTERACTINGWITH STRONG WESTERLIES AND UNDERGOING EXTRATROPICAL
TRANSITION (ETT). A 141102Z SSMIS INDICATES CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY AND ONLY
REMAINS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT. THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE
INITIAL POSITION DUE TO THE DECREASED ORGANIZATION AND DECAYING
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND APRF. TC 08S IS EXPECTED TO TRACK
SOUTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS OVER COOL
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND SHOULD COMPLETE ETT WITHIN 24 HOURS.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT, RESULTING IN HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK. THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR TC 08S
TO WEAKEN BELOW 35 KNOTS BEFORE COMPLETING ETT DUE TO THE COLD SSTS
AND STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUMSIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
141200Z IS 21 FEET.

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