BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING AND SEA ICE FORECAST

BACKCOUNTRY AVALANCHE WARNING...
THE CHUGACH NATIONAL FOREST AVALANCHE INFORMATION CENTER HAS ISSUED AN
AVALANCHE WARNING FOR THE KENAI AND WESTERN CHUGACH MOUNTAINS IN AND
AROUND THE EASTERN TURNAGAIN ARM AREA.
DANGEROUS HUMAN TRIGGERED AVALANCHES ARE LIKELY IN THE BACKCOUNTRY.
NATURAL AVALANCHES AREA POSSIBLE DURING PERIODS OF HEAVY SNOWFALL AND
HIGH WIND. PEOPLE WITHOUT EXPERT LEVEL AVALANCHE SKILLS ARE URGED TO
STAY OUT OF THE BACKCOUNTRY.
THIS AVALANCHE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY... 12-8-2012
STARTING AT 1200 NOON AND WILL BE ACTIVE FOR 24 HOURS.
THIS WARNING DOES NOT INCLUDE SKI AREAS... HIGHWAYS... OR RAILROADS
WHERE AVALANCHE REDUCTION WORK IS EXECUTED.
Fresno Ridge (Near Summit Lake)
Most Recent Hourly Data
2012-12-08 17:00:00
Air Temp 20.0 F
RH 100 %
Wind 28 Mph from 50°
Max Gust 52 Mph
Seattle Ridge
Wind Spd
(MPH) Wind
Dir Gust Snow
Depth
(in)
Seattle Ridge
2400 ft (FCNFAIC) 0.0 mi N Dec 8
5:00 pm 22.0 30 49
SEA ICE ADVISORY FOR WESTERN AND ARCTIC ALASKAN COASTAL WATERS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ANCHORAGE ALASKA 226 PM AKST FRIDAY DECEMBER
72012
FORECAST VALID... WEDNESDAY DECEMBER 12 2012
ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE... MODERATE TO HIGH.
SYNOPSIS... A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF
THE CHUKCHI SEA.. BEAUFORT SEA... AND NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. A LARGE PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERING SEA
SATURDAY... MOVE OVER BRISTOL BAY SUNDAY... OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA
MONDAY... AND SHIFT OVER SOUTHEAST ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER
COMPLEX LOW WILL ENTER THE WESTERN BERING SEA EARLY NEXT WEEK AND
MOVEOVER THE ALASKAN WEST COAST AROUND WEDNESDAY.
-ARCTIC OCEAN- -BEAUFORT SEA-PKZ245-FLAXMAN ISLAND TO DEMARCATION
POINT- PKZ240-CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND- PKZ235-POINT FRANKLIN TO
CAPE HALKETT-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY BEAUFORT SEA... ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN CONCENTRATION AND THICKNESS OVER THE BEAUFORT SEA THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
-CHUKCHI SEA- PKZ230-CAPE BEAUFORT TO POINT FRANKLIN- PKZ225-CAPE
THOMPSON TO CAPEBEAUFORT- PKZ220-WALES TO CAPE THOMPSON-
PKZ215-KOTZEBUE SOUND-
ICE COVERED.
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY CHUKCHI SEA... ICE WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN CONCENTRATION AND THICKNESS OVER THE CHUKCHI SEA
THROUGHWEDNESDAY... MODERATE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
SOUTHERN CHUKCHI SEA TODAY THROUGH EARLY NEXTWEEK. THIS WILL AID IN
TRANSPORTING YOUNG AND NEW ICE THROUGH THE BERING STRAIT INTO THE
BERING SEA NORTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND.
-BERING SEA- PKZ210-DALL POINTTO WALES- PKZ200-NORTON SOUND-
PKZ180-SOUTHWEST ALASKA WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO DALL POINT-
PKZ160-BRISTOL BAY WATERS CAPE NEWENHAM TO PORT HEIDEN-
THE MAIN ICE EDGE LIES FROM THEALASKAN COAST NEAR 55.9N 161.3W TO
56.8N 159.3W TO 57.9N 159.8W TO 58N 161.5W TO56.4N 163.8W TO 59.1N
170.1W TO 62.5N 170.7W TO 63.7N 171.9W TO 63.6N 174.2W TO 64.3N 176.3W
TO 63.9N 179.9E TO THE RUSSIAN COAST NEAR 62.2N 179E. THE ICE EDGE IS
MAINLY 1 TO 5 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE.
FORECAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MODERATE NORTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY WINDS
WILL PERSIST OVER MUCH OF THE ALASKAN WEST COAST THROUGH MONDAY...
BEFORE WEAKENING LATE MONDAY... AND BUILDING TO MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY
WINDS TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THE REGION FROM THE BERING STRAIT TO SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND WILL
INCREASE IN ICE CONCENTRATION VERY RAPIDLY TODAY THROUGH MONDAY AS
MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS EXPORT YOUNGAND NEW ICE FROM THE
BERING STRAIT REGION. OPEN WATER AREAS WILL FREEZE RAPIDLY ONCE WINDS
BECOME LIGHTER EARLY NEXT WEEK.
THE AREA SOUTH OF SAINT LAWRENCE ISLAND TO NUNIVAK ISLAND WILL
EXPERIENCE THE STRONGEST WINDS TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT... BECOMING
LIGHT UNTIL MODERATESOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN TUESDAY AND TURN
EASTERLY WEDNESDAY. OVERALL THE MODERATE OFFSHORE WINDS WILLEXPAND THE
ICE EDGE IN THIS REGION 20 TO 30 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
THE AREA FROM NUNIVAK ISLAND TO BRISTOL BAY WILL EXPERIENCE THE
STRONGEST OFFSHORE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY... BECOMING LIGHT
UNTILMODERATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS RETURN TUESDAY. OVERALL THE ICE IN
THIS REGION WILL EXPAND AN ADDITIONAL 20 TO 30 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST
THROUGH SUNDAY... THEN AS THEWINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHEAST THE EDGE WILL
COMPACT TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. EXPECT A NET EXPANSION OF THE ICE
EDGE 10 TO 20 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
-COOK INLET- PKZ140-COOK INLET NORTH OF KAMISHAK BAY AND ENGLISH BAY-
PKZ130-BARREN ISLANDS AND KAMISHAK BAY WATERS-
COOK INLET ANALYSIS CONFIDENCE... HIGH TO MODERATE.
SYNOPSIS FOR COOK INLET... A WEATHER FRONT IN THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF
ALASKA WILL MOVE TO THE NORTHERN GULF OF ALASKA SATURDAY. THE
ASSOCIATED PACIFIC LOW WILL MOVE INTO THE SOUTHERN BERINGSEA SATURDAY
AND OVER SOUTHCENTRAL ALASKA MONDAY... BEFORE SHIFTING OVERSOUTHEAST
ALASKA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN OVER MUCH OF
NORTHERN ALASKA THROUGH WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER COMPLEX LOW WILL ENTER THE
BERING SEA TUESDAY AND MOVE TOWARDS THE ALASKAN WEST COAST WEDNESDAY.
7 TO 10 TENTHS YOUNG AND NEW ICE LIES WITHIN KNIK ARM AND TURNAGAIN
ARM. THE ICE AT THE PORT IS VARYING BETWEEN 7 AND 9 TENTHS NEW AND
YOUNG ICE WITH THE CHANGING TIDES. ICE IS NOW MOVING IN STRIPS ALONG
THE SHORELINES IN SOUTHERN COOK INLET... AND DOWN TO KALGIN ISLAND
WITH CONCENTRATIONS OF 1 TO 9 TENTHS NEW AND YOUNG ICE... AND HIGHER
CONCENTRATIONS IN PROTECTED BAYS.
FORECAST FOR COOK INLET THROUGH WEDNESDAY... MODERATE NORTHERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY... THEN TURN
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AND RETURN TO NORTHERLY AS THE LOW MOVES OFF TO THE
EASTEARLY NEXT WEEK. THE WINDS WILL AID IN MOVING EXISTING ICE IN
UPPER COOK INLET FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE LARGEST EXPANSION THROUGH
SATURDAY. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO TURN ON SUNDAY... EXPECT HIGH
CONCENTRATIONS OF ICE WITHIN UPPER COOK INLET TO CONTINUE TO SPREAD
OUT. EXPECT ICE CONCENTRATIONS TO INCREASE INNORTHERN COOK INLET AND
STRIPS OF ICE TO CONTINUE MOVING INTO SOUTHERN COOK INLET THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.
ICE IN COOK INLET CHANGES SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE TIDES.

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