AG2 TROPICAL REPORT DECEMBER 28 2012'

Tropical Depression 27W Warning #13 Final Warning
Dec 28, 2012
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/wp2712.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//RMKS/1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION 27W WARNING
NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER
ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR 7.9N 109.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 17 KTS POSITION ACCURATE
TO WITHIN060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 025 KT, GUSTS 035 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER REPEAT POSIT: 7.9N 109.3E ---
FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 6.5N 106.5E MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 24
HR POSIT: 245 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 291200Z --- 5.2N
103.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 020 KT, GUSTS 030 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER WATER ---REMARKS:281500Z POSITION NEAR 7.5N 108.6E.TROPICAL
DEPRESSION (TD) 27W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 230 NM SOUTHEAST OF HO CHI
MINH CITY,VIETNAM HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A RECENT SATELLITE
FIX FROM PGTW AND A 281228Z SSMIS MICROWAVE PASS. A NORTHEASTERLY COLD
SURGE FLOWING ALONG THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTASIA HAS CAUSED TD 27W TO
BECOME FULLY EXPOSED. WUKONG IS CURRENTLYENCOUNTERING MODERATE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.RECENT
ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A SEVERE DECREASE IN
CENTRAL CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. TD 27W IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON
THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WARNING CENTER. THE SYSTEM WILL BE
CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 281200Z IS 10 FEET.//
Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert WTXS21
Dec 28, 2012
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9513.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN110 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 15.1S 111.8E TO 20.5S 109.8EWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS ATTHIS TIME.WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280630Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATEDNEAR 15.3S 111.7E. THE SYSTEMIS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT
05KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.8S 112.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.3S 111.7E, APPROXIMATELY 435
NMNORTH-NORTHWEST OF LEARMONTH, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRALSATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN DEEP
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, WITH FORMATIVE BANDING
DEVELOPINGAROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM EVIDENT IN A 280510Z TRMM
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THIS DISTURBANCE LIES JUST TO THE WEST OF AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTER, DIRECTLY BENEATH A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN
AN AREA OF LIGHT (10 TO 15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND FAVORABLE
DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. A 280201Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25 KNOT
NORTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DISTURBANCE, WITH A
FEW 30 KNOT EAST-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS IN THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE DEVELOPS THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36
HOURS AS IT CONTINUES TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. DUE TO INCREASING
CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC AND A FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO
WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 290930Z.//
Tropical Cyclone 05P (Five) Warning #01
Dec 28, 2012
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0513.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001//RMKS/1. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 05P (FIVE) WARNING NR 001 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII
VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 281200Z --- NEAR
10.7S 160.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 240 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN040 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED
BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035
KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY REPEAT POSIT:
10.7S 160.5E ---
FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 290000Z --- 11.4S 159.9E MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 190 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 12.1S 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 080 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 04
KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 300000Z --- 12.9S 159.8E MAX SUSTAINED
WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 175 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48
HRS, VALID AT: 301200Z --- 13.8S 159.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075
KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064
KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT
WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT
WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT

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