AG2 TROPICAL REPORT DECEMBER 12 2012' 125920PT

Tropical Cyclone 03S Warning #13
Dec 12, 2012
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0313.gif
TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S WARNING NR 013 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII
VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121200Z --- NEAR
25.0S 73.9E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 165 DEGREES AT 17 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED
BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040
KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING
EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 25.0S 73.9E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID
AT: 130000Z --- 28.2S 75.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045
KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 150 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 31.4S 77.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL
---REMARKS:121500Z POSITION NEAR 25.8S 74.3E.TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 03S
(CLAUDIA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 1065 NM SOUTH OF DIEGO GARCIA, HAS
TRACKED SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE
INTRACK SPEED OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS, AS THE SYSTEM HAS MOVED INTO THE
MID-LATITUDE FLOW ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF A DEEP LAYERED TROUGH,
WHICH IS ENHANCING THE GRADIENT FLOW. STRONG UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE
NOTICEABLY IMPACTING THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) (30
KNOTS). THE STRONG VWS IS EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE THE UPPER LEVEL DEEP
CONVECTION AND THE LLCC WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. UNFAVORABLE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH HAS STARTED THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION PROCESS
WHICH IS EXPECTED TO BE COMPLETE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE TRACK, HOWEVER, THE TRACK SPEEDS
ARE SLOWER THAN ARE CURRENTLY BEING OBSERVED. BASED ON THIS, THE
FORECAST SPEEDS HAVE BEEN KEPT AHEAD OF THE CONSENSUS OF AVAILABLE
MODEL GUIDANCE. CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST TRACK REMAINS HIGH. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 20 FEET.
Tropical Cyclone 04P Warning #03
Dec 12, 2012
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0413.gif
TROPICAL CYCLONE 04P WARNING NR 004 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN
SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII
VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 121800Z --- NEAR
14.1S 172.0W MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 095 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED
BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065
KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050
KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT
WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT:
14.1S 172.0W --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 130600Z --- 14.1S
171.1W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 110 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT: 131800Z --- 14.2S 170.8W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095
KT, GUSTS 115 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064
KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT
WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT
WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR
POSIT: 250 DEG/ 03 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 140600Z --- 14.4S
171.4W MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 07 KTS
--- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 141800Z --- 14.6S 172.9W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 030 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 095 NM NORTHWEST
QUADRANT

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