AG2 TROPICAL REPORT DECEMBER 10 2012 221941PT

TYPHOON 3S WESTERLIES INTEREQUATOR ZONE INTERCEPT
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh0313.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 010//RMKS/1. TROPICAL
CYCLONE 03S (CLAUDIA) WARNING NR 010 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE
IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND
RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 110000Z ---
NEAR 18.7S 73.2E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 210 DEGREES AT 07 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN060 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED
BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090
KT, GUSTS 110 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064
KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT
WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT
WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM
SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT:
18.7S 73.2E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 20.6S
72.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID
OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 180 DEG/ 11 KTS
--- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 120000Z --- 22.8S 73.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS -
065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF
050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055
NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS
OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST
QUADRANT 110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR
TO 36 HR POSIT: 160 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z ---
25.4S 74.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT WIND RADII
VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST
QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 155 DEG/ 17 KTS
--- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 130000Z --- 28.4S 75.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN
WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM
NORTHEAST QUADRANT 095 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
085 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
----
TAIL BIRTH TO FEED OFF OF EQUATOR WESTERLIES GIVING GOOD POLAR CONTROL
FOR SANTA CLAUS AND TRACKING OF SANTA ON CHRISTMAS BY NORAD -
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/warnings/sh9113.gif
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//RMKS/1. FORMATION OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN170 NM EITHER SIDE OF A
LINE FROM 14.7S 179.7W TO 13.5S 172.8WWITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFYISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE
WARNINGS ATTHIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 27 TO 32
KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 110222Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER
IS LOCATEDNEAR 14.6S 178.8W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
AT 11 KNOTS.2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
14.4S 177.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.6S 178.8W, APPROXIMATELY 290 NM
NORTHEAST OF NADI, FIJI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC)
WITH DEEP CENTRALIZED CONVECTION AND SYMMETRIC FORMATIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. A RECENT 102312Z OSCAT PASS SHOWED STRONG
CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WITH 30 KNOT WINDS PRESENT
AROUND THE LLCC, WHICH IS SUPPORTED BY OBSERVATIONS NEAR THE CENTER OF
THE SYSTEM INDICATING 1000 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED POLEWARD OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR)
AXIS, WHICH IS PROVIDING VERY FAVORABLE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AND A LOW
(05 TO 10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT. SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) ARE A FAVORABLE 29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 27 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TOBE NEAR 1000 MB. BASED ON THE FAVORABLE
SSTS AND UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW IN A LOW VWS ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL
FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT
24 HOURS IS HIGH.

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