AG Report of The Oceans December 20 2012' NAS BLYND

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND/SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/201400Z-210600ZDEC2012//RMKS/1. WESTERN NORTH
PACIFIC AREA(180 TO MALAY PENINSULA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION
HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.3N 156.6E, APPROXIMATELY 140 NM SOUTHWEST OF
POHNPEI. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN EXTENSIVE AREA OF DEEP
CONVECTION PERSISTING OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. A
201041Z METOP-A IMAGE SHOWS A BROAD LLCC WITH SHALLOW CONVECTIVE
BANDING. A 201043Z ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A DEFINED YET ELONGATED
CIRCULATION WITH 10 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER AND STRONG CONVERGENT
FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY, WHICH IS HELPING TO FUEL THE
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A
MARGINALENVIRONMENT WITH DIFFLUENT, EASTERLY FLOW AND MODERATE (15 TO
20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TOBE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER
SUSPECT AREAS.2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO
135 EAST): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA
IN PARAGRAPH 1.B.(1).//
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abpwsair.jpg
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN
OCEAN/REISSUED/210000Z-211800ZDEC2012//RMKS/1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA
(MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE
SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF
CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.7N 67.4E,
APPROXIMATELY 540 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF COCHIN, INDIA. ANIMATED
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS FLARING CONVECTION AROUND A BROAD
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 201727Z AMSU89 GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION AND OVERALL POOR ORGANIZATION.
SCATTEROMETER DATA FROM 201902Z SHOWS THE LLCC IS EMBEDDED ALONG A
LINE OF SHARP TROUGHING EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ARABIAN SEA.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND HAS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE
WESTERLIES OVER CENTRAL INDIA. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE
(28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. (2)
NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST
OF AFRICA): A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE. B. TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR
11.5S 101.2E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF COCOS ISLANDS. ANIMATED
INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS A SYMMETRIC, WELL DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH LIMITED CONVECTION. A 201906Z
TRMM 85GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE CONCURS WITH THE IR AND ADDITIONALLY SHOWS
A BROAD AREA OF DRY AIR SOUTH OF THE LLCC WITH SOME OF THE DRY AIR
BEGINNING TO BE PULLED TOWARDS THE LLCC. RECENT SCATTEROMETER FROM
201718Z SHOWS 10 TO 15 KNOT WINDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALFOF THE LLCC
AND STRONGER 20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERNHALF. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS REVEALS THE LLCC IS LOCATED UNDER AN AREA OF HIGH (20 TO 30
KNOTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR AND HAS LIMITED POLEWARD OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 DEGREES CELSIUS) FOR
DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. DUE
TO THE UNFAVORABLE UPPERLEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
IS LOW. (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE:
ADDED LOW AREAS IN 1.B.(1) AND 2.B.(2).//
http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/ab/abiosair.jpg
No Active Atlantic Tropical Warnings
By CDO.FWC.NRFK.fct@navy.mil(FWC-N CDO) from Fleet Weather Center
Norfolk Virginia. Published on Dec 21, 2012 .
*. As of Fri, 21 Dec 2012 02:45:02 GMT
S$


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