HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL and River Watch November 27 2012

1036 AM CST TUE NOV 27 2012 VALID NOVEMBER 27 THROUGH DECEMBER 2
Alaska - GALE WARNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY TONIGHT... NE WIND 45 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
.WED... NE WIND 40 KT. SEAS 22 FT.
Hawaii - EXPECT CLOUDS AND LIGHT SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD SECTIONS OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LEE SIDES WILL HAVE FEWER CLOUDS. THE BREEZY
TRADE WINDS WILL DECREASE WEDNESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES CLOSER TO
THE STATE. THERE ARESOME SHOWERY CUMULUS HIDDEN AMONGST THE DRIER
CLOUDS...BUT SEEING AS THE AIRMASS IS SOMEWHAT STABLE...THE SHOWERS
FALLING OUT OF THE CUMULUS ARE LIGHT.
THE CLOUDS UP AGAINST THE NORTHEAST FACING SLOPES OF HALEAKALA AND THE
TALL BIG ISLAND VOLCANOES.THE FRONT...OR WHAT/S LEFT OF IT...IS
PROBABLY SOMEWHERE SOUTH OF THE BIG ISLAND
- THE HIGH WILL SLIDE NORTHEAST OF THE ISLANDS LATE WEDNESDAY...PUSHED
THERE BY A SURFACE LOW AND COLD FRONT FAR TO THE NORTHWEST. THE LIGHT
EAST WINDS WILL VEER OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST LATE WEDNESDAY...LIKELY
SPREADING VOLCANIC HAZEOVER KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY BY FRIDAY...THE
HIGH WILL BE CENTERED OFF OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND A RIDGE WILL EXTEND
WESTWARD OVER THE STATE.
In Washington UNSETTLED CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK
IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF PACIFIC STORMS MOVING ACROSS THE REGION.
A NEGATIVELY TILTED UPPER TROF TO APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST DURING
THE DAY WED. THE MODELS CONTINUED TO WAFFLE ON THE TIMING OF THE
PRECIP ARRIVAL AND WERE NOW SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS RUN. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR THE STRENGTHAND THE DEPTH OF THE COLD EASTERLY FLOW THROUGH
THE PASSES AS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN - WED NIGHT
AND/OR THU MORNING. 980 MB LOW MOVING THROUGH WESTERN WASHINGTON
SUNDAY MORNING WHICH WOULD RESULT IN WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA
BUT THE 00Z GFS AND CANADIAN RUNS ARE WEAKER AND MUCH FURTHER SOUTH
HYDROLOGY FROM THE PREV DISCUSSION THE 00Z ECMWF HAS PUSHED THE
HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OFTHE CWA ON FRIDAY AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY.
STILL WITH A SERIES OF STORMS MOVING THROUGH THE AREA IN THE NEXT WEEK
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE SKOKOMISH RIVER COULD FLOOD WITH THE FLOOD
THREAT BEGINNING ON FRIDAY AND LASTING THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
Into The Great Basin HIGH PRESSURE ACROSS THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO
SHIFT EAST WEDNESDAY AS A MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW DEVELOPS. THIS
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
INVERSIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN TOMORROW AS A SHORT WAVE TROF
EJECTS OUT OF THE ERN PAC PARENT TROF AND MILD SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
INCREASES ACROSS THE ERN GREAT BASIN. EXPECT INVERSIONS TO MIX OUT IN
MOST AREAS WED ALTHO INCREASING CLOUD COVER DURING THE AFTN COULD CUT
OFF THE WEAK DAY TIME HEATING COMPONENT AND PREVENT THE VERY BOTTOM OF
THE VALLEYS FROM SCOURING OUT. An upper air disturbance and cold
front are moving through southeast Texas this morning. As the storm
moved across Texas some showers and thunderstorms developed over
roughly the southeast half of Texas and Louisiana. The heaviest rain
was between 1.00 and 2.00 inches over extreme southeast Texas and
southwest Louisiana. Upper air disturbance Thursday into Friday
morning which should bring some light showers to roughly the southeast
two thirds of Texas and Louisiana.
A more significant pattern change may signal an additional chance of
rain about late Monday and Tuesday of next week.
#BATON ROUGE (FS: 35 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 5.8
11/29 5.6
11/30 5.3
12/01 4.9
12/02 4.5
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
VICKSBURG (FS: 43 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 3.6
11/29 3.1
11/30 2.7
12/01 2.4
12/02 2.4
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
ARKANSAS CITY (FS: 37 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 -0.2
11/29 -0.7
11/30 -0.8
12/01 -0.8
12/02 -1.2
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
CAIRO (FS: 40 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 9.6
11/29 9.3
11/30 9.4
12/01 9.7
12/02 9.4
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
#DONALDSONVILLE (FS: 27 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 3.7
11/29 3.6
11/30 3.4
12/01 3.1
12/02 2.8
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
PADUCAH (FS: 39 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 15.5
11/29 15.5
11/30 15.5
12/01 15.5
12/02 15.5
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
NEW ORLEANS (FS: 17 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 2.7
11/29 2.7
11/30 2.6
12/01 2.5
12/02 2.4
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
#NATCHEZ (FS: 48 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 11.7
11/29 11.4
11/30 11.0
12/01 10.6
12/02 10.3
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
#HELENA (FS: 44 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 -0.6
11/29 -0.8
11/30 -0.7
12/01 -1.1
12/02 -1.5
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
CAPE GIRARDEAU (FS: 32 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 7.2
11/29 7.3
11/30 7.3
12/01 7.1
12/02 6.9
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
SMITHLAND TW (FS: 40 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 12.2
11/29 12.2
11/30 12.2
12/01 12.2
12/02 12.2
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
#RED RIVER LNDG (FS: 48 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 16.0
11/29 15.7
11/30 15.4
12/01 14.9
12/02 14.5
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
#RESERVE (FS: 22 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 3.2
11/29 3.1
11/30 3.0
12/01 2.8
12/02 2.6
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
GREENVILLE (FS: 48 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 9.7
11/29 9.3
11/30 8.9
12/01 8.9
12/02 8.9
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
CARUTHERSVILLE (FS: 32 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 2.4
11/29 2.0
11/30 1.5
12/01 1.4
12/02 1.6
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
NEW MADRID (FS: 34 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 -1.9
11/29 -2.4
11/30 -2.5
12/01 -2.3
12/02 -2.3
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
MEMPHIS (FS: 34 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 -6.3
11/29 -6.3
11/30 -6.7
12/01 -7.0
12/02 -7.1
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
TIPTONVILLE (FS: 37 ft.)
Date Forecast
11/28 1.6
11/29 1.1
11/30 0.8
12/01 0.9
12/02 1.0
Updt: 11:22AM 11/27/12
Six River Watershead drainage into the Mississippi River Delta in
Non-Comliance "#"

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