PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012

NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTERNORMAN OK 0108 AM CDT MON OCT 22 2012
AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS IA...NRN MO...EXTREME ERN NEB.
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY VALID 220608Z -
220845Z PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT
SUMMARY...SCATTERED TSTMS HAVE DEVELOPED BETWEEN LNK-LWD...MOVING
NEWD MAINLY OVER SWRN IA. ADDITIONAL TSTMS SHOULD FORM OVER PORTIONS
NRN MO AND SRN/CENTRAL IA DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONGEST CELLS
WITHIN EXPANDING AREA OF CONVECTION MAY POSE RISK OF ISOLATED AND
MRGLLY SVR HAIL THROUGH AT LEAST 10Z. DISCUSSION...ACTIVITY IS
LOCATED LEFTWARD FROM 40-50 KT LLJ AXIS AND MOSTLY E OF
QUASISTATIONARY SFC BAROCLINIC ZONE...BUT WITHIN BROAD LLJ PLUME.
TSTMS ALSO ARE INVOF PERSISTENT JUXTAPOSITIONOF 850-MB THERMAL AND
MOIST AXES EVIDENT IN 00Z UPPER AIR ANALYSIS AND IN PLANAR OBJECTIVE
ANALYSES SINCE. ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL WAA AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT...WITH 850-MB DEW POINTS IN 14-15 DEG C RANGE...SHOULD HELP
TO MAINTAIN 1000-2000 J/KG PRECONVECTIVE/ELEVATED MUCAPE SUGGESTED BY
MODIFIED OAX/TOP RAOBS AND RR/ARW-KF SOUNDINGS. HOWEVER...MODEST
MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL KEEP EFFECTIVE SHEAR MAGNITUDES GENERALLY BELOW
35 KT...LIMITING ORGANIZATION/MAGNITUDE OF HAIL THREAT. ENTIRE TSTM
REGIME WILL SHIFT EWD TO ENEWD THROUGH REMAINDER PRE-DAWN
HOURS...WITH SOME LATERAL EXPANSION LIKELY OVER IA AND NRN MO.
..EDWARDS/HART.. 10/22/2012
ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...OAX... LAT...LON
39709333 40079494 40689622 41219618 42649471 43019308
42759184 41929127 40069183 39669351 39709333
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/mcd2081.gif

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